first lady michelle obama is in florida. meanwhile governor romney is in virginia. his running mate congressman paul ryan is making the round in colorado and nevada. his wife, ann romney is campaigning in ohio and his son tag romney is in pennsylvania. fox news has a brand-new national poll that shows the obama biden ticket tied with the romney ryan ticket at 46% among likely voters. the latest "real clear politics" national polling average also shows a tie 47.4 each. let's go to the man with his crystal ball, larry sabato director for the center of politics at the university of virginia. larry graze into that crystal ball and tell us who wins. >> yeah, the popular vote is very, very close, and the election stoerl college vote i theee electoral college vote will not be a landslide for either of the candidates. we are working on the final projection. obama is closer to 270 than governor romney, but there are a lot of these swing states, the very same ones we've been watching for this year, you and i have been talking all year about these same states, and they are sti